PPI printed hot at .2% vs. expectations of .1%, core was .4% vs. .2% expected and PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade was below at 0% vs. expectations of .2%. The hot headline and core beat was almost solely driven by the largely irrelevant trade services category which was up 1.9% versus .7% last month. Consequently, the hot print does not impact our view that inflation is under control.
More importantly, we estimate that the release of CPI and PPI implies a core PCE print for June of only .005% and a year-over-year decline to 2.5%. The decline to 2.5%, combined with a weakening economy and job market clears the way for the Fed to cut in July. This Fed, however, is likely to wait until September as it has shown an inability to process real-time data or accurately forecast future inflation so it will likely be conservative about the timing of the first cut.
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