New York -May 2, 2023 ~ The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors has completed our new report providing key insights on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months. See this month's full report below but be sure to join our Monthly Market & Economic Outlook Webinar scheduled for Thursday, May 4th at 1:30 pm ET where Jay Hatfield, CEO/CIO and portfolio manager will provide even more recent updates and insights to this report and the changing market and economy. Not registered for the webinar already? Click here to register. Also, by registering, we will send you a webinar playback video link if you are unable to join live.
Economic Outlook:
Recent Fed minutes have verified that the banking crisis has reduced the Fed’s view on the terminal federal funds rate required to be sufficiently restrictive. We expect the Fed to raise rates one more time in May and signal a pause. Despite the lag in the BLS measuring shelter costs, we are also forecasting that core year over year PCE drops to less than 3% by September as shelter is only 16% of PCE vs. 33% of CPI.
Austin Goolsbee has publicly said that he rejects the Fed’s flawed view of inflation that focuses on the Phillips Curve and wages as the primary driver of inflation citing Chicago Fed research papers demonstrating that wages are a lagging indicator of goods inflation, not the driver of high inflation.
We do not expect a recession in the US in 2023 due to a very resilient housing sector with an ongoing shortage of housing and tail winds from the enormous 70% energy cost advantage relative to the rest of the world.
The inventory of existing houses for sale is at an all-time low of 1.3MM units vs 4.5MM homes for sale at the peak of the financial crisis. The national vacancy rate is close to an all-time low of 5.0% vs. the peak of 11.1% during the financial crisis in 2009. Monetary policy acts with a lag and there has already been a tightening of financial conditions with the 30-year mortgage rate rising from an all-time low of 2.80% to over 6%.
Stock Market Outlook:
We remain bullish on the stock market in the second half of the year and are maintaining our 4,500 target on the S&P based on a 19x 2024 EPS estimate of 240. The overvaluation of companies in promising industries (i.e., AI) is a very efficient characteristic of the US capital market as it attracts capital to those industries and speeds the development of break-through technologies. We believe this will help support the market in 2023.
Inflation has moderated as we anniversary the peak of inflation that occurred in the second quarter of 2022. We expect a summer rally where we break out of the current 3,800-4,200 range.
We believe the 2% inflation target adopted almost 20 years ago is arbitrary and has negatively impacted the middle class in the United States as nominal wage growth has plummeted with average annual nominal wage growth declining from over 7% from 1980-2009 to under 3% from 2010-2022. Click here to go to our commentary article with more on the 2% inflation target by the Fed.
Bond Market Outlook:
We expect that 10-year treasury bonds will find a bottom in the 4% yield area and potentially rally into the 3-3.25% range during 2023. We believe bond markets are finding a bottom and 2023 will be a strong year with gains of more than 10% as inflation declines rapidly in the first 6 months of the year and bond yields also decline.
Past Fed tightening cycles have caused crashes in the junk bond market. However, near term tight Fed policy is likely to flatten the yield curve which will keep a lid on long term rates. A rate pause after the Fed meeting in May would likely be a catalyst for the bond market.
There are $52 trillion of global pension assets, with only 28% allocated to bonds that will rebalance and reallocate into treasuries if yields are significantly above 3%, capping the potential rise in rates.
Commodity Market Outlook:
We expect oil to trade in the $75-95 range while the Ukrainian War continues, with European natural gas prices at the energy equivalent of oil being at over $90/barrel. A key global energy and climate opportunity is to rapidly develop US natural gas transmission and export capacity of the US.
Natural Gas prices are now down 25% from the beginning of 2022 and 70% from the 2022 highs, which is highly deflationary as gas and electricity is half of the energy component of CPI and bleeds through to core CPI. Fertilizer prices are off more than 70% from the highs reached in March of 2022. Certain sectors are more impacted, for example, most crops have a 40% energy component and airline fares have a 30% energy component.
Oil prices have declined by 15% since the banking crisis commenced. Nonetheless, OPEC+ continues to support oil prices through production cuts. In addition, the European energy crisis is likely to offset weak global demand for oil.
Quick Tip:
There is currently a shortage of homes and autos in the US so mass layoffs are unlikely in 2023. However, financial stress from the recent Banking Crisis and the unprecedented speed of interest rate hikes have impacted market liquidity. We remain focused on asset diversification across sectors and instrument types (i.e., common equities and preferred equities) and look for opportunities in large capitalization companies that pay dividends in the second half of 2023.
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ABOUT US
Infrastructure Capital Advisors, LLC (ICA) is an SEC-registered investment advisor that manages exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a series of hedge funds. The firm was formed in 2012 and is based in New York City. ICA seeks current income opportunities as a primary objective in most, but not all, of ICA's investing activities.
DISCLOSURE
Not for distribution to the public. Opinions represented above are subject to change and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The links to the fund fact sheets will provide standardized performance and risk disclosures.
FUND RISKS Investors should consider each Fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus with this and other information about the Fund, please visit the Fund's webpage. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
ICAP Exchange Traded Funds (ETF): Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, investing in equities securities, dividend-paying securities, utilities, small-, mid- and large-capitalization companies, real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, foreign investments and emerging, debt securities, depositary receipts, market events, operational, high portfolio turnover, trading issues, active management, fund shares trading, premium/discount risk and liquidity of fund shares, which may make these investments volatile in price. Foreign investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, and changes in currency exchange rates which may negatively impact the Fund's returns. Small and Medium-capitalization companies, foreign investments, and high-yielding equity and debt securities may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund is a recently organized investment company with no operating history. Please see the prospectus for a discussion of risks. Distributor, Quasar Distributors, LLC.
PFFA Exchange Traded Funds (ETF): The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track. The costs of owning the ETF may exceed the cost of investing directly in the underlying securities. Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks may decline in price, fail to pay dividends, or be illiquid. Non-Diversified: The Fund is non-diversified and may be more susceptible to factors negatively impacting its holdings to the extent that each security represents a larger portion of the Fund’s assets. Short Sales: The Fund may engage in short sales, and may experience a loss if the price of a borrowed security increases before the date on which the Fund replaces the security. Leverage: When a Fund leverages its portfolio, the value of its shares may be more volatile and all other risks may be compounded. Derivatives: Investments in derivatives such as futures, options, forwards, and swaps may increase volatility or cause a loss greater than the principal investment. No Guarantee: There is no guarantee that the portfolio will meet its objective. Prospectus: For additional information on risks, please see the Fund’s prospectus.
PFFR Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF): The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities it is designed to track. The costs of owning the ETF may exceed the cost of investing directly in the underlying securities. Preferred Stocks: Preferred stocks may decline in price, fail to pay dividends, or be illiquid. Real Estate Investments: The Fund may be negatively affected by factors specific to the real estate market, including interest rates, leverage, property, and management. Industry/Sector Concentration: A Fund that focuses its investments in a particular industry or sector will be more sensitive to conditions that affect that industry or sector than a non-concentrated Fund. Passive Strategy/Index Risk: A passive investment strategy seeking to track the performance of the underlying index may result in the Fund holding securities regardless of market conditions or their current or projected performance. This could cause the Fund’s returns to be lower than if the Fund employed an active strategy. Correlation to Index: The performance of the Fund and its index may vary somewhat due to factors such as Fund flows, transaction costs, and timing differences associated with additions to and deletions from its index. Market Volatility: Securities in the Fund may go up or down in response to the prospects of individual companies and general economic conditions. Price changes may be short or long-term. Prospectus: For additional information on risks, please see the Fund’s prospectus.
AMZA Exchange Traded Funds (ETF): The value of an ETF may be more volatile than the underlying portfolio of securities the ETF is designed to track. The costs of owning the ETF may exceed the cost of investing directly in the underlying securities. MLP Interest Rates: As yield-based investments, MLPs carry interest rate risk and may underperform in rising interest rate environments. Additionally, when investors have heightened fears about the economy, the risk spread between MLPs and competing investment options can widen, which may have an adverse effect on the stock price of MLPs. Rising interest rates may increase the potential cost of MLPs financing projects or cost of operations, and may affect the demand for MLP investments, either of which may result in lower performance by or distributions from the Fund’s MLP investments. Industry/Sector Concentration: A fund that focuses its investments in a particular industry or sector will be more sensitive to conditions that affect that industry or sector than a non-concentrated fund. Short Sales: The Fund may engage in short sales, and may experience a loss if the price of a borrowed security increases before the date on which the Fund replaces the security. Leverage: When a Fund leverages its portfolio, the value of its shares may be more volatile and all other risks may be compounded. Derivatives: Investments in derivatives such as futures, options, forwards, and swaps may increase volatility or cause a loss greater than the principal investment. MLPs: Investments in Master Limited Partnerships may be adversely impacted by tax law changes, regulations, or factors affecting underlying assets. No Guarantee: There is no guarantee that the portfolio will meet its objective. Performance Data: Performance data quoted backtested results. Backtested Performance was derived from the retroactive application of a model developed with the benefit of hindsight. Backtested performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Please visit https://www.virtus.com/products/virtus-infracap-us-preferred-stock-etf#shareclass.742/period.quarterly for performance data current to the most recent month-end and the Fund’s standard performance information. You should consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. For PFFA, PFFR, and AMZA funds, contact VP Distributors LLC at 1-888-383-4184 or visit www.virtusetfs.com to obtain a prospectus that contains this and other information about the Fund. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing.
Virtus ETF Advisers, LLC serves as the investment advisor, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors, LLC serves as the sub-adviser to PFFA, PFFR, and AMZA. These three funds are distributed by VP Distributors, LLC, member FINRA, and a subsidiary of Virtus Investment Partners, Inc.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The links to the fund fact sheets will provide standardized performance and risk disclosures.
© 2023 Infrastructure Capital Advisors, LLC
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